Season’s Greetings from Red Sox Nation, and Chris Gallo, your Red Sox correspondent!
In my first post, written shortly after the Red Sox took home the World Series trophy, I speculated that the Red Sox would re-sign Nathan Eovaldi, based on his superb postseason performance, which they did on December 6th. Not sure if I can get much luckier than that!
They also re-signed World Series MVP, Steve Pearce. So, two of their five big free agents are back on board for 2019 while two others, Ian Kinsler and Joe Kelly, have moved on to the Padres and Dodgers, respectively. Not much of a surprise there.
That leaves big-time closer, Craig Kimbrel, who is reportedly seeking a 6-year, $100 million plus contract, still on the market, and the Red Sox without a closer. I had wanted Eovaldi to come back as the new closer. Why not, after what he did in October?
But Eovaldi doesn’t want to close…he wants to start. The word on the street is that Boston was the only team he spoke with that would assure him that he’d start. Ergo, he came back, and I am happy he did!
As it so happens, the Red Sox are still short a setup man to replace Joe Kelly. There are plenty of decent relief pitchers on the market to replace Kelly, and I believe that’s what the Sox will do. In fact, they did acquire Colten Brewer in a trade with the Padres.
Either there is another deal to come, or maybe the Red Sox bring up one of their good young minor league pitchers, such as Darwinzon Hernandez. I saw Hernandez in the Arizona Fall League, and he was stunning! Stuck out two batters per inning over about 11 innings of work.
“Hernandez, who likely will begin the season at Double-A Portland, dominated in the Arizona Fall League. The 6-foot-2, 245-pound Venezuelan native struck out 24 and walked six in 11.1 innings of relief (eight outings). He allowed two earned runs (1.59 ERA) and held the opposition to a .195 batting average.
He went 6-1 with a 1.88 ERA (52.2 innings, 11 earned runs), 1.22 WHIP, .209 batting average against, 74 strikeouts and 25 walks in his final 10 starts for High-A Salem. “
So, let’s get back to the real issue with the Red Sox roster today…they need a closer.
Matt Barnes could fill that role. His best skill is velocity…which has gone from 94.8 in 2015 to 96.6 in 2018, but the rest of his skills don’t really match up with what you’d want from a closer. A 14 K/9 in 2018 looks pretty good, but that came with a 1.26 WHIP and 3.65 ERA.
The real issue…he just walks too many batters…4.5 per 9 in 2018, and 3.9 for his career. Furthermore, Barnes has posted a 4.14 career ERA, a 1.36 WHIP. I’d keep Barnes as the set-up man.
Ryan Brasier came up from Pawtucket last year and did a fine job, but he is not a closer. At age 31, his velocity is a solid 96.6, but that only resulted in 7.8 K’s per nine. He’ll fit in fine with Barnes.
I don’t see anyone else on the roster or in the minors with the skills or experience to close…today. I do expect Darwinzon Hernandez to be ready in another year, max. So they don’t really need a long-term closer today.
The current list of free agents with extensive ninth-inning experience includes Zach Britton, Cody Allen, David Robertson and the erstwhile Red Sox, Craig Kimbrel.
So, what about Kimbrel? Should he or will he return to Boston? His career numbers of 1.91 ERA, .92 WHIP, 14.7 K’s per 9, and 3.5 walks per 9, match up with the best who ever played the game. And while his skills are still pretty strong…2018 resulted in a 2.74 ERA and .99 WHIP, along with 13.9 K’s per 9, which look pretty good, but they are among the worse of his career.
Another concern is his fly ball rate was 47% in 2018, and has been on the rise in recent years, along with a corresponding drop in his ground ball rate. It’s not likely to get better anytime soon. My final point is that he is 31…not old by any means, but no longer the young closing stud. Maybe he comes back, if his asking price gets back to a more reasonable 3 years at $18 million per year.
My guess is that Boston signs either David Robertson or Adam Ottavino. Both have seen better days. Their velocity has dropped and they are striking out fewer batters, but they have guile. In other words, they have learned the art of pitching and could sign for a year or two to bridge the gap until Hernandez is ready.
I like Robertson a little more, because he lives in Rhode Island. Either way, this would be a low risk deal. And if it didn’t work out, Boston could trade for a closer mid-season.
There will be lots of closers available by July.
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