The Jay Bruce for 20 cents on the Dollar Theory
The rumor mill has brought Jay Bruce to the forefront in recent days in regards to a potential deal with the Baltimore Orioles. Ken Rosenthal originally reported that the Orioles may not have the prospect talent pool to acquire Bruce, but the Reds have since refuted that argument saying that the Orioles do have that necessary talent.
Cincinnati radio personality Lance McAllister suggests that trading Bruce now would be like selling Bruce at 20 cents on the dollar. He suggests that by waiting to trade Bruce towards the August 1st deadline, his value may increase and the return may be closer to 50 cents on the dollar. It was also brought up how the Reds missed on their opportunity when they passed on a Mets offer of Zack Wheeler, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, for Jay Bruce back in July. The Mets would then trade for Yoenis Cespedes a few days later and the rest is history.
My argument against the 20 cents on the dollar theory
Bruce’s stock could drop further. He is entering his age 29 season and to go along with his streakiness, what happens if he hits the disabled list? That 20 cents on the dollar may turn into 10 cents on the dollar or even worse, the Reds get nothing and are stuck paying him to recover.
The benefits of trading Bruce outweigh those of keeping him. Bruce is due $12 million in 2016 with a $13 million club option in 2017. Both are reasonable numbers for a competitive ball club, but the 2016 Reds are going to lose a lot and the 2017 season may not be much better.
Right now Bruce is slated for RF, Billy Hamilton in CF, with there being a platoon in LF of Scott Schebler and Adam Duvall. If Bruce were to be traded, the platoon would be dissolved with either Duvall or Schebler being moved to RF. Getting them playing time to see what they have acquired in their previous trades would likely outweigh any backlash they get from the fan base by losing Bruce.
My preferred trade would be with the Orioles for Mychal Givens. Givens to this point is a middle reliever, but would easily project to be the Reds closer almost immediately, at a low price. Currently JJ Hoover headlines the list of potential closer options, followed by Jumbo Diaz, Michael Lorenzen & Tony Cingriani. I do not expect such a return for the Reds as I pretty much expect low-level prospects whose projected ETA will be around 2018 or 2019.
Jay Bruce does own a limited no-trade clause in his contract. He has blocked the Indians, Yankees, A’s, Red Sox, Twins and Marlins. He did recently update this list removing the Blue Jays from it which may suggest that winning is important to him. After the Reds debacle with Brandon Phillips exercising his no trade rights, the Reds will most likely take what they can get to move Bruce. We shall see if the Orioles make it happen.