1/8/18
A new year has begun. The landscape of baseball has changed from last year as it has every year before this, and as fantasy baseball players, we have to identify certain trends in baseball and determine who will become the breakout stars.
With free agency and trades taking place in baseball this winter, certain things are more obvious than others
- The obvious changes are when the stars are moving to different teams.
- The not so obvious changes are when we identify who is replacing the stars that have left.
Evan Longoria was traded to the San Francisco Giants
The Giants:
- get a star to man the third base position
- bolster their lineup with a proven leader in the clubhouse that will anchor their aging lineup.
The Rays:
- Acquired Christian Arroyo, a 22-year old raw talent who played 3B for the Giants, but will he play there in 2018?
- What has been lost with the Rays situation, is that Matt Duffy is coming back in 2018. The reason I have highlighted this first is because the Rays always seem to provide the fantasy world with a monkey wrench to our plans. This is the organization that has made stars of Ben Zobrist and Logan Forsythe by allowing their players to fill various roles in the field increasing their position eligibility status.
- The Rays could play Arroyo and Duffy at different spots which will increase their fantasy values, especially in AL-Only League formats.
- The Rays resurrected Brad Miller’s relevance with his insertion into their system in 2016 and who is to say that the Rays will not do the same for Duffy and help maximize Arroyo’s potential long term?
The biggest move of the Winter Meetings was the Giancarlo Stanton trade to the Yankees.
We have all heard about the Stanton pairing with Aaron Judge in that lineup and how awesome the Yankees are going to be. There is no need for my evaluation of this because we have heard about it all and we all look forward to seeing how it turns out.
The Marlins traded away Marcel Ozuna to the Cardinals and have been reported to be considering moving Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, newly acquired Starlin Castro and J.T. Realmuto. The under the radar story here is the fantasy impact on the Marlins.
- The Marlins lineup may end up being dreadful, but the production will need to come from somewhere if all or some of the above referenced players are moved.
- No team in the history of MLB has ever been shut out entirely or gone winless in a full regular season schedule. This sounds ridiculous to point out, but with the hyperbole being spent on how bad this team will be, it needs to be said.
- The player to scout this spring will be Derek Dietrich. He is currently slated to play third base, but as history has shown, he will gain eligibilities at various positions during the season. The reason he should be scouted in the spring at age 28 is because we need to see where he will be batting in the lineup. He may be batting 3rd or 4th in the lineup which will increase his value as a run producer. His On Base Percentage skills will help him stay near the front portion of the lineup and when you have a player on a bad team, you need him to be getting at bats and opportunities for him to have any place in your fantasy lineup.
- On the pitching side for the Marlins, Kyle Barraclough is a must own in all league formats. The argument against him will be that he plays for possibly the worst team in baseball. Why should he have any value? As stated before, no MLB team has ever gone winless for an entire season. This needs to be reiterated over and over and over. The real reason why Barraclough will have value is because when the Marlins do win, the likelihood of it being by less than 3 runs will be heightened. Also, Barraclough may be used across multiple innings to close games out and in tie games to keep the Marlins in line for the win. This will lead to him notching higher strikeout totals. His wildness is something to be concerned about for sure, but the Marlins are going to give him every shot possible and if he has a successful 1st half of 2018, do not be surprised if he gets moved by the new Marlins ownership at the July deadline and he may land in a more advantageous position as a closer for a contender.
Every year, there are managerial changes and we have to determine what players will receive the biggest jump because of the change.
Dusty Baker was let go by the Washington Nationals and was replaced by Dave Martinez. The obvious point to be made here is that Dr. James Andrews can postpone any surgeries he had planned for Nationals pitchers and that Nationals pitchers all had their stocks rise and professional careers improve with the change. I choose to dig deeper and explore the less obvious. Being a disciple of Joe Madden, I fully expect Martinez to utilize the skill sets of players on his roster to play multiple positions.
- The player to watch here is Wilmer Difo. He is 25 years old and showed signs last year of being considered a breakout. He enters 2018 eligible at both second base and shortstop and has been used at third base and in the outfield. With Martinez as his manager, we should expect that versatility to be taken advantage of even more. The other element of the managerial change with Difo will be his being allowed to attempt more stolen bases.
- He could be a potential 20 home run, 20 stolen bases type of player that you can obtain late in drafts or cheaply at auction.
The 2018 season will provide us with plenty of challenges and more surprises than we can count. Getting a jump on those surprises and taking advantage of them is what makes the difference between winning and losing. Be a winner in 2018.
As always, your feedback is appreciated. I look forward to the responses and will be open to constructive criticism.
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