Week Nine Tidbits

By David Leisure

For the second week in a row, the NFL had a game result in a tie. Such results anger fans of both teams as well as the general public more than actual losses do.  The NFL is the only league in America outside of various soccer leagues that has games played in the regular season that can result in a tie. Even the NCAA has evolved more than the NFL.  How messed up is that?

Here is the solution that needs to be implemented that really takes no effort whatsoever by the NFL to improve the current format,  but assures a winner each week: Eliminate the 15 minute game clock in the overtime.  It is that simple. You still have a play clock and each team is given two timeouts for overtime with there being no carryovers from regulation.

The fact that we have a third two minute warning in a game is ridiculous.  Such a simple move only changes the game for the better.  How annoying is it to watch overtime games where players are trying to get out of bounds to stop the clock when really the most important thing should be to score?  I digress.

The best overall performance in Week eight was turned in by Derek Carr as he benefitted from a long overtime himself to rack up extra yardage and ended the game with his fourth touchdown pass of the game. He finished having thrown for 513 yards without an interception as the Raiders improved to 5-0 on the road this season.  

Everything I have written here is impressive about the Raiders, something to consider in both reality and fantasy football: Past results earn you nothing on the next Sunday or the Sunday after that.   

A Great example is the case of the Vikings who started the season 5-0, and have since lost to the Eagles and Bears in back to back games.  You have to win that game that week, or you are a loser.

The point I want to highlight  here is that the fact Carr had such a great performance in week eight really should not determine your viewpoint on how he will perform in Week nine, so do not pay up to start him this week in DFS because you will be disappointed.  

The Raiders are on the road again this week, but they play a Broncos defense on Sunday night that has a matching 6-2 record and intercepted Philip Rivers three times last week.  I have Carr in several seasonal leagues myself, as I am one  of his biggest fans, but I am benching him in several leagues in favor of Marcus Mariota who enjoys a much better match-up against the Chargers.

The Chargers are currently favored by five points  which would suggest that Las Vegas believes the Titans will be playing from behind in this game, which will increase Mariota’s overall opportunities to produce all four quarters of the game.

The best case example of a full four quarters meaning something is made most apparent by the case of Blake Bortles.  There is no better garbage time quarterback currently in the NFL that takes advantage of fourth quarter blowouts to pad his numbers so much so that when you watch the games, he looks lost, but when you read the box scores, you think he is more than adequate.

The Jaguars were down 27-0 at halftime and 36-8 with 3:11 remaining in the game.  When all was said and done , the game finished with a 36-22 score and Bortles had racked up 337 yards and thrown three touchdowns with zero interceptions making his fantasy owners boast how great he was.  When teams fall behind like the Jaguars fall behind on a constant basis, the opposing team’s defense lets up some and to Bortles’ credit, he beats the system by taking full advantage of the depleted efforts of his opponents.  

It certainly does not apply in every case, but when a quarterback is on a bad team, their fantasy numbers are much more impressive than most would think.  They are simply beneficiaries of game flow which allows them to rack up stats.  Look for these types of guys to fill your DFS lineups this year and when next year comes around, look for such quarterbacks later in the draft, rather than paying up for one  of the elites.

There are two games that I want to highlight this week for fantasy purposes that people may not be looking at the right players to target.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

Both teams have losing records, but Jay Ajayi  is coming off of two straight games where he ran for over 200 yards.  He is certainly no longer a secret and will be a popular play this week.  On the Jets side of the ball, several people will be all over Brandon Marshall and declare it as “Revenge Game” even though Marshall has not played for the Dolphins in years.  Neither of those players is who really should be targeted to own this week.  

On the Dolphins side of the ball, you should be looking at the Dolphins WR corps of Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. The Jets defense is susceptible much more to the opposing passing game than the running game.  Yes, Ryan Tannehill is still the Dolphins quarterback and that handicaps the passing attack, but I fully expect double digit targets for Landry in this game and for Parker to be a prime red zone  target in this game which increases his opportunities for scoring touchdowns.

For the Jets, I fully expect Matt Forte  to be the old Matt Forte. I say this realizing he scored two touchdowns in Week 8.  What I mean by saying that I expect the old Matt Forte is that I expect him to be targeted much more in this week’s passing game.  In Week  8, Forte was targeted just three times and caught two passes for 16 yards.  

Through seven games so far, Forte has been targeted just 29 times catching 20 passes for 163 yards and one touchdown. I realize Forte is older nowadays, but not so old he cannot still be a force in a game such as this one .  If you have the opportunity to start him this week, enjoy watching him benefit with plenty of underneath passes as deeper coverages are rotated towards Marshall.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

The storyline this week will be the impending return or no return at all this week of Gimp Ben Roethlisberger.  Obviously if he does play, Antonio Brown’s stock skyrockets and even if the Gimp does not play, you are starting Brown anyways.  The true storyline of this game has everything to do with reality football as two divisional rivals square off with 1st place on the line.

After starting 3-0, the Ravens have dropped four straight games.  Being that this is a home game for the Ravens, it is much more critical a game for them to win at all costs.  I fully expect the Ravens to utilize Breshad Perriman in this game, finally. It would be the perfect time for him to have a breakout performance against a hated rival. Perriman has caught just 14 passes for 183 yards across 34 targets.  Disappointing at all levels for sure, but it is obvious that getting him the ball is a priority.  

For the Ravens to have any shot in this game, they will have to keep up with the Steelers on the scoreboard, so that should increase Joe Flacco’s pass attempts and Perriman’s opportunities.

As always I welcome your feedback along with your own tidbits you would like to offer.  I may or may not respond with my own comments, but I do read all the comments made on these articles and learn from you on your takes and try my best to improve my articles the following weeks.  I thank you all for reading.   Have a great week everyone .