My apologies to my readers for this late edition of Tidbits, but real life has its downfall of getting in the way of fantasy sports.
I will be brief this week, but I did want to hit on a subject in this latter stage of the season that normally applies to reality football that can also apply to fantasy football teams: Avoid Trap games. Trap games are those games on the schedule that have so much appeal to them being an obvious victory for one team, that the other comes up and beats them. This is nothing new to many sports fans and I have touched on this subject in articles earlier this year, but in fantasy football, this is crunch time where mistakes made now can devastate your entire season if you are on the playoff bubble.
Let’s take a look at some games this week that I feel will be traps for fantasy owners.
New England @ San Francisco
This game features one of the best teams in the league against one of the very worst in the league. It screams blowout in all regards as this is the first time in Tom Brady’s career that he will visit San Francisco. The Patriots are favored by 11.5 points as of Saturday morning, so Vegas’ odds makers are on the side of a blowout as well. The trap here is something made known to me by Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm and he has a valid point: Chip Kelly is one person in the NFL that Bill Belichick likes, and there will probably be no running up of the score in this game. Also, even when Kelly was struggling in 2015 with the Eagles, it was those Eagles who routed the Patriots in a game that was never in doubt. I do not believe that the Patriots will lose this week coming off a home loss, but I do not expect any rout, which will limit Brady’s numbers somewhat. Also, you have to throw in that Dion Lewis’ potential return this week will impact LeGarrette Blount’s output this week. Coming off of a 3 touchdown performance against the Seahawks Legion of Boom defense, owners may like to think that this 49ers matchup will set up for a feast when in reality it may be a famine. Even if Lewis in inactive this week, it is likely James White gets brought back into the mix. If you can avoid starting anyone from this game, you may be better off in the long run.
Jacksonville @ Detroit
The appeal of this game is its becoming a shootout between Matthew Stafford and Blake Bortles is what I see being a very popular opinion amongst fantasy owners. These are the games that each of these teams play with fantasy owners where each of them just disappoints us on so many levels. In our minds, we are thinking it will be a 35-28 game, when in reality it will probably be a field goal heavy contest which helps no one and will finish something like 16-10. In Point Per Reception (PPR) Leagues, Allen Robinson, Marvin Jones and Golden Tate have their value remain, but in standard leagues that reward touchdowns more heavily, again do not get your hopes up in this game because you will be bound to be disappointed.
Houston vs Oakland from Mexico City
This game screams Derek Carr possibly throwing 50 passes against a depleted Texans defense and on the other side it screams for Lamar Miller to finally live up to his preseason hype against a Raiders defense that has struggled against the run. The reality is that Mexico City is 7,382 feet above sea level which is 2,000 feet higher than Denver. Look for both teams to be winded in this game by the eco quarter which will lead to a decline in production across the board from everyone. The travelling cheerleaders may even need oxygen. I am benching Carr in the leagues where I own him even with his Monday Night Football appeal because of this factor.
As we wind down our regular seasons, do your best to evaluate your players’ matchups and optimize your lineups and avoid trap games as much as you can. If you can achieve this, you should be successful to get into the playoffs and be a force to be reckoned with. I wish you all well and as always, I welcome your feedback. Again, you have my apologies for my tardiness of the article, and I will do my best to beat the struggles of real life to enjoy my fantasy sports life in the future.
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Important topic David, thanks. New England can also be a trap with Gronk not even making the trip and Martellus Bennet who is the hottest thing in daily actually being in questionable condition. I greatly appreciate the reminder that Belichick is pals with Chip Kelly and that is Rice a Roni for thought. An important tid bit too is that Tom Brady is a California native. He ousted a beloved Michigan quarterback to win bowl games for that school so the Michigan wasn’t exactly in love with him and he betrayed his home state. Belichick turned Benedict Arnold into John Paul Jones, no who’s a bigger Revolutionary War Hero- Paul Revere, no… i dunno. Brady is coming off a beating from the team he edged in the Superbowl. Going to California with an aching in his heart. This one is about Brady and I don’t think he will let you down unless his favorite player of all times comes out of retirement and takes the reigns for the 49ers.
Your other 2 analyses for a trap are a Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports MUST READ.