They hit it like they knew it was coming because they did know. RHP Luis Severino unintentionally told them.
Yankee ace Luis Severino’s 2018 season is a story of two halves. From March to the end of June, he dominated. He gave up more than three runs exactly one (1) time – a recipe for a lot of victories given the potent Yankee offense. From the beginning of July to the end of the regular season he gave up more than three runs six (6) times! In that time, Severino was one of the worst pitchers in baseball.
So what changed? And what can we expect from Severino in 2019? Before discussing what happened, let’s have a look at his stats.
Here are Severino’s stats from the start of the season to the end of June:
Wins: 12
Losses: 2
Innings: 111.6
ERA: 2.10
Strikeouts: 132
WHIP ((Walks + Hits)/Innings Pitched): 0.96 (anything below 1.1 is excellent)
K/9 (Strikeouts per nine innings): 10.6 (anything above 9 is excellent)
K/BB (Strikeout to walk ratio): 5.07 (anything above 3 is excellent)
For the first half of the season, Severino was everything a fantasy owner could ask for. He was elite. He delivered many wins, tons of strikeouts, low ERA, and a low WHIP. Every 5th day, fantasy owners could rest easy knowing he would be out there.
Then the wheels fell off.
Here are Severino’s stats from the start of July through the end of the season:
Wins: 7
Losses: 6
Innings: 79.6
ERA: 5.20
Strikeouts: 88
WHIP: 1.40
K/9: 9.9
K/BB: 4.4
The strikeouts dipped by a full point and the ERA and WHIP were just awful. In the first half, when Severino got two strikes his fastball and slider were a lethal combo – over 40% of batters faced who Severino got to two strikes swung and missed at either a fastball or slider for strike three. In the second half both lost effectiveness but the change in the slider was dramatic:
Swinging strike % with 2-strikes by half
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
| Fastball | 15.5 | 12.2 |
| Slider | 25.9 | 17.1 |
The easy conclusion to make is that Severino wore down but his pitch velocity does not support that conclusion:
Average velocity by pitch by half
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
| Fastball | 98.3 | 97.6 |
| Slider | 88.6 | 88.3 |
So if his pitches had similar velocity then what happened? According to the YES Network, Severino was tipping his pitches.
From the YES Network’s Twitter:
YES Network Verified account @YESNetwork
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Hand positioning is one of the ways Luis Severino was tipping pitches in 2018.
The video in the YES tweet clearly shows that Severino would hold his hands slightly lower for his slider. It’s something that either he started doing in July or teams started picking up on in July. You can see the results in the stats above. Baseball is a game of inches in more ways than one.
So what can we expect from Severino in 2019?
Severino’s stuff did not diminish between June and July. The radically different results suggest that YES is correct – hitters knew what was coming and bashed him around the yard.
The multi-million dollar questions are:
- Did the Yankees know he was tipping pitches?
- If they did, was Severino unable to prevent doing it?
The Yankees need Severino to be their #1. Now that we know the issue I have to believe that someone with his level of talent – and an organization with the Yankees resources – will figure out how to get this resolved.
For that reason, I’m drafting Severino as a top 10 starter – I’d be happy to have him as my #1.
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