Overvalued Wide Receivers 2018

By Steve Bateman

Mike Evans (TB)  is currently showing up on draft boards in the second round, around the 19th pick overall. Over the last four years, Evans has gone through as many starting quarterbacks as any other Top 10 wide receiver, with the exception of DeAndre Hopkins.

While that shouldn’t matter if the player has elite skills, it does affect weekly production. The connection the receiver has with his quarterback is what sets apart elite wide receivers.

With Evans missing Jameis Winston for three games, he will have to play catch-up during the year. Going in this direction could set you back three games with your wide receiver one. That’s a lot of ground to make up with only 13-14 regular season games, before your league’s playoffs.

Why take the chance in the second round on a wide receiver, that has only guaranteed 10 games with his starting quarterback (barring injuries)?

He’s not worth drafting as your second round pick, but I’d grab him as your wide receiver two, as he won’t last past the second round.

Will Fuller (HOU)   is going right now in the seventh round of drafts. He has gone as early as the sixth round of earlier drafts. Fuller averaged fewer yards per game in 2017, compared to his rookie season (Y/G 2016-45.4 & 2017-42.3). In 2017 he scored seven touchdowns, compared to two touchdowns in 2016. He also had fewer receptions in 2017 (28), to his 2016 total (47).

So what’s the hype on Fuller this season?

Fuller played under DeShaun Watson for seven games, before Watson went down with an ACL injury. Fuller became a favorite of Watson’s in the red zone in that short amount of time. However, teams will pick up on that connection this season and blanket him in the red zone.

Fuller has had his share of injuries over his last two seasons in the league. According to Sports Injury Predictor, he has a 56.7% chance for injury this season. That is second from the top to Chicago’s Kevin White. So, with the injury risks this season, and with Fuller being a one-trick pony in the red zone, he shouldn’t be targeted in your draft before the 10th round.

Amari Cooper (OAK) is now in his fourth season with the NFL. In his short time in the league, he’s now onto his third offensive coordinator. Coming from Alabama, he was ready to play in a pro-style offense. Then he had to learn a new offensive game plan for three of his four years, which didn’t give his offense very much time to develop into a playoff team.

This season he starts off with Head Coach Jon Gruden, and there’s a lot of uncertainty with the offense going into the season.

Gruden hasn’t stood on the field as a head coach since 2008. Spending the last eight years in the ESPN Monday Night Football booth. When Gruden did pick his coordinators for his new team, he chose Greg Olson the former quarterback’s coach of the Los Angeles Rams. Olson does have experience as an offensive coordinator. In fact, he was the Raiders OC from 2013-2014, before joining the Jacksonville Jaguars as the OC.   Olson coached quarterback’s at Purdue during Drew Brees’ time there and helped Jim Chaney in the development of Brees. So it’s possible that he could work good things for Carr and Cooper, however, I am a little pessimistic about this situation for the Oakland Offense.

I wouldn’t draft Cooper as my wide receiver one this season, especially in the second-third round of drafts. Be sure to take notes on him this year, he could have the value of an end of first round pick in 2019 in the third-fourth round of 2019.

DeVante Parker (MIA) is being drafted in the seventh round at this point of the draft season. Going with fellow wide receiver’s Robby Anderson, Sammy Watkins, Emmanuel Sanders, Devin Funchess, Sterling Shepard, Robert Woods.

Parker’s been in the league for three years, and in those three years, he’s averaged 13.7 Yards per Reception (Y/P). With a total of eight touchdowns and 1908 Total Yards.

Compare those numbers with Kenny Stills, his teammate in Miami.

Stills averaged 15.9 Y/P in his three years at Miami. Combined with a total of 18 touchdowns and 2013 Total Yards.

Where can you draft Stills?

You can draft Stills at the earliest in the ninth round, and he’s gone into the 10th round this year.

I would hold off on drafting Parker, with a more sure pick of Kenny Stills later.

Tyreek Hill(KC)  is listed here because of his ADP’s in drafts this year. Hill’s had two great seasons in KC. Last season was his first year as a full-time starter. Within that year, he averaged 15.8 Y/R, 1183 TTL Yards, and seven touchdowns.

Currently, Hill is being drafted as the 10th wide receiver off the board. With new starting quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, no one knows what to expect from him this season. That’s too much to risk if you take Hill as your wide receiver one. I would have no problem taking Hill as your wide receiver two in the fourth round.

Michael Crabtree (BAL) started out in the NFL as a projected future star but, this never seemed to come to fruition for Crabtree. He played in San Francisco from 2009-2014, coming up with 4327 Total Yards, 12.5 Y/R, and 26 touchdowns. Then in Oakland, he obtained 2543 Total Yards, 11.0 Y/R, and 25 touchdowns. Crabtree ended up the wide receiver two for Oakland, with the draft of Cooper. While in Oakland, he was a decent wide receiver two and a good play in terrible matchups for Cooper. Now with Crabtree going to Baltimore, I feel even less confident that he’s a good choice this year. With Baltimore’s offense under Joe Flacco at quarterback, it’s hard to believe in any wide receiver.

This season he is being drafted between the fifth and sixth round. Going before Jamison Crowder, Chris Hogan, Randall Cobb. Those are all receivers that I feel more comfortable taking as my wide receiver three or wide receiver4, instead of Crabtree. I would avoid drafting Crabtree, as well as any other wide receiver in Baltimore this season.

Kelvin Benjamin (BUF)  Do you remember when Kelvin Benjamin was a thing? Was he really ever a thing, or just a big body for Cam Newton to target?

Last season Sammy Watkins was traded to the Los Angeles Rams, leaving the Buffalo Bills with little receiver help, so we saw Benjamin getting traded before the trade deadline to the Bills. With Buffalo not having much on offense and quarterback, Benjamin’s catching % went down along with his other stats.

Buffalo did draft Josh Allen in the offseason this year but left him little protection on the Offensive Line. While they did upgrade their quarterback, the remaining depth at receiver is weak along with the OL. This will not bode well for Benjamin this year.

Currently, Benjamin is going to the ninth and 10th round of drafts. That’s way too early to target a player with terrible upside in 2018. I would avoid drafting Benjamin in all of your drafts this year.

Jordy Nelson (OAK) was a thing on the Green Bay Packers team for years. Although he was plagued with injuries throughout his last few seasons in Green Bay, he was still  able to put up numbers under Aaron Rodgers. Unfortunately, last season was Jordy’s worst year as a Packer with Rodgers sidelined for the season. Starting in 15 games last season, he only averaged 9.1 Y/R, with six touchdowns and 53 Receptions. He was only targeted 88 times in his 15 games.

While he wasn’t with his counterpart of Rodgers, the Packers showed that they needed him less than the other wide receivers. This was a disappointing way for him to end his time in Green Bay. Now, as an Oakland Raider, I see less opportunity for the 33-year-old. While it’s true that Jon Gruden has stated that he has a plan for Jordy, at his age and with his injury history, can you trust drafting Nelson? I think he’s past his prime and will be pushed by Seth Roberts for playing time.

Avoid drafting Nelson in your drafts this season.

Sammy Watkins (KC) is very talented, and should have a better opportunity in Kansas City. Watkins has a career average of 15.9 Y/R, and 305twoTotal Yards. All of this while working with different quarterbacks in Buffalo and Los Angeles. He is a strong receiver, and at just 25, still in his prime. What you need to worry about is second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes who has a great arm and can hit Sammy, but has only started in one NFL game.

Watkins is currently going in the fifth round of drafts. Some teams are able to obtain him as their wide receiver three, while others are drafting him as their wide receiver two.

Can you rely on him as your wide receiver two?

With picking a receiver in the fifth round, make sure he has a positive upside that year and is not past the prime of his career. Watkins is looking at a better opportunity in KC than what he was shown in LA, but don’t invest too high of a pick with him in the fifth.

Brandon Marshall (SEA) has had a successful twelve-year career in the NFL, expanding from the Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, New York Jets, to the New York Giants. In his career, he’s obtained 12,215 Total Yards, 8twotouchdown’s, and 6 Pro Bowls.

While Marshall has been drafted in some drafts, he’s gone undrafted in other drafts. At 34 years of age and with a career marked by injuries, he’s past his time as a full-time starter in the NFL. Even last season, an ankle injury kept him from appearing in more than five games.

After the Giants released Marshall, he could have left to pursue a career in broadcasting. Instead, he decided to continue to play football in the NFL and signed with the Seattle Seahawks.

I’m sure he’ll make the 5twoman roster, but how much playing time is yet to be determined. I would hold off on drafting Marshall until he has played in a few Preseason Games. Don’t overvalue him in drafts, just because of his history in the league.