Key takeaways from Yankee spring training
Luke Voit and Greg Bird are both good – but we still don’t know how much playing time they’ll get.
Then, Aaron Hicks got hurt which opened the door for the Yankees to carry both. Hicks won’t be gone long though – and the spring stats will still be fresh in everyone’s mind when it comes time to make a final decision.
It wasn’t an open competition between right-handed Luke Voit and left-handed Greg Bird, exactly. But one of them is going to be the primary first baseman. The other was headed back to Triple-A.
Let’s compare statistics:
Greg Bird (42 AB) .333/.500/.643, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 13 BB, 10 K
Luke Voit (45 AB) .289/.365/.578, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 6 BB, 11 K
Voit hit one more homer and drove in two more runs. Bird beat him in every other category, posting a fantastic 1.143 OPS and drawing 13 walks compared to only 10 strikeouts. Keep in mind that the Yankees have a history with the lefty Bird and – all things being equal – would prefer him to win the job.
Fantasy Impact:
• Both Bird and Voit can produce useful fantasy numbers but they may be limited by the other getting ABs.
• In 10 team leagues there are more predictable options. I’d avoid both.
• In a 12-team league, I’d own Bird first.
• In a 14-15 team, or any AL only, I’d own Bird first but both should be owned.
Note: This should not be a classic platoon situation as both of them can hit both lefties and righties.
Aaron Judge is fully healthy
Boy, is he ever.
https://youtu.be/15VLcmogK08
The stat you need to know is that Judge had 12 spring training hits.
• 6 Homers
• 4 Doubles
• 1 Triple
• 1 Single
Judge spent most of the spring going to right field and right center field. The last time he did that with authority, he hit 52 home runs as a rookie and nearly won the MVP award.
Also of note, Judge has modified his two-strike approach. He’s removed his leg kick and now simply raises his heel and puts it back down. He still strikes out too much but even a small improvement could turn him into a top 5 overall hitter. Simply put, I’m buying everywhere I can.
Fantasy Impact:
I’m drafting Judge anywhere after number 5. I’d draft him as high as 3rd overall if it’s an OBP league. I’d draft him #2 overall, ahead of Mookie Betts, if it’s an OPS league.
The rotation is a mess
Ugh. Where to start?
- Ace Luis Severino won’t pitch until May.
- #3 Starter Masahiro Tanaka has been awful in April/May for the last couple of years, posting combined ERAs of 4.62 in 2018 and 6.34 in 2017.
- #4 Starter J.A Happ has gotten lit up this spring to the tune of a 7.94 ERA. Of all the numbers, I put the least stock into this one – veterans don’t care about spring numbers. At year’s end, Happ’s numbers should be just fine.
- #5 Starter C.C. Sabathia will be briefly suspended but is still recovering from heart surgery and won’t pitch until late April, at best.
- Meanwhile, James Paxton has looked like the guy who struck out 16 and threw a perfect game last year. Besides posting a 2.08 ERA and striking out 19 over 17.1 innings, he’s passed the eye test. He looks free and easy when throwing. As of today, March 28th, he’s the lone rotation bright spot. Where would the Yankees be without him?
Fantasy Impact
• Severino’s injury has been downplayed in local media but the fact is he’s shut down over a month is concerning. Maybe the Yankees are just being super cautious with the young ace they just signed to a 4-year deal and maybe it’s more serious than that.
We won’t know until we see Severino on a mound. I’d reduce his projections by ~20%. 13-14 wins, 160 Ks.
• Tanaka will be fine. Over the last couple of years, he has heated up with the weather. I’d keep him on my bench until I saw him look good a couple of times in a row.
• Happ will also be fine. Over the last few years he’s been a “set it and forget it” type pitcher. Put him in your lineup, close your eyes and by September he’s provided you what you expected from him.
• Paxton is the ultimate tease. He has the most stuff, command and knowledge of pitching, of the Top 10 pitchers. Yes, he’s that good. His problem is staying on the field. If you have Paxton it means you invested an early pick or significant amount of auction budget. You’d better have a good backup plan….or else.
The Yankee bullpen is a tremendous source of middle-relief holds, Ks and ratios
Given the state of the rotation, it’s a good thing this bullpen is so ridiculous. Gone are the days of the washed up veteran on mop up duty while toiling in the bullpen. These days, bullpens are a weapon that managers employ to shut down games. The results are judged by strikeouts and the Yankees strike out more than anyone. Here’s a look at the top 4 Yankee relievers K/9 from 2018:
• Chad Green: 11.2
• Adam Ottavino: 13.0
• Dellin Betances: 15.5
• Aroldis Chapman: 16.3
Also lurking in the late innings are:
• Zack Britton who’s thrown 9 scoreless innings this spring.
• Tommy Kahnle who’s struck out 10 over 8 innings this spring and
• Jonathan Holder who’s given up 1 run over 11.1 IP this spring after throwing to a 3.14 ERA / 1.09 WHIP in what has to be the most unheralded “good season” a Yankee reliever can have.
Don’t worry about whether there are too many mouths to feed for any one reliever to have value. Manager Aaron Boone isn’t shy about putting them to work – and there will be plenty of it to go around.
Fantasy Impact:
• Aroldis Chapman has been one of the top closers in baseball for years and continues to dominate.
• Green, Ottavino, Betances are all great sources of hidden Ks and Holds
• Britton, Kahnle, and Holder are excellent sources of ratio and Holds help as well.
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