When it comes to trades and other roster decisions, to say that multiple factors are at play, would be an understatement. And the Houston Astros’ acquisition of Aledmys Diaz for pitching prospect Trent Thornton certainly falls under that umbrella.
So, let’s jump right into the rationale behind the trade and it means for the Astros moving forward.
For starters, keeping a team, any team in any sport (except for maybe the Golden State Warriors) is pretty close to impossible. Players need to be paid and as they progress and improve in their careers, there isn’t enough payroll, at bats, or roster space for everyone. A perfect example of this is Marwin Gonzalez.
The first acquisition of Jeff Luhnow has proved to be an invaluable member of the Astros over the past six seasons, especially in the last two, and he surely will be missed. But now he is a free agent with seemingly the entire league interested in him. And the fact that Scott Boras is his agent doesn’t make the situation any easier for Houston.
In 2017, Gonzalez was one of the key hitters in Houston’s lineup as he hit .303 with 23 home runs and 90 RBIs in 515 plate appearances. Last season, the utility man took a step back as he hit just .247 in 552 plate appearances with just 16 home runs and 68 RBI. While his bat was a nice touch, it was Gonzalez’s versatility in the field that truly made him a valuable member of the Astros.
Last season alone, Gonzalez played 39 games at shortstop (his natural position), but based on team needs he spent 73 games in left field. That wasn’t supposed to be the case, but Kyle Tucker proved to just not be ready. I would expect Tucker to be ready for a larger role in 2019, and if not, the Astros could either add another bat for the outfield (they have been rumored to be in the market for one) or Tony Kemp could help to fill the void. Gonzalez also played parts of two games in center field, one in right field, while spending time at each of the other infield positions as well.
Now, nothing has been officially decided about Gonzalez’s 2019 address, but the current line of thinking is that he will be replaced by both Kemp and Diaz.
From an offensive perspective, Diaz’s production came pretty close to, if not surpassed Gonzalez last season. In 452 plate appearances with Toronto, Diaz hit .263 with 18 home runs and 55 RBI. He didn’t show as much versatility as he strictly played short stop and third base, but he has seen some time in the outfield previously. We should also note, that Diaz’s BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) was .269 last season (the league average is generally about .300), so we can expect to see some improvement.
If want a greater source of optimism from Diaz, we don’t need to look much further than his 2016 rookie season with St. Louis in which he hit .300 with 17 home runs and 65 RBI’s in 460 plate appearances. But even more importantly, Diaz isn’t even eligible for arbitration until 2020 and then free agency in 2023, so Houston has a few seasons of control over their new acquisition.
While Trent Thornton, the price on Diaz, pitched in the Arizona Fall League and has been regarded as an Astros’ pitching prospect, he still had yet to distinguish himself in Houston’s system. Last season, in Triple-A, Thornton had a 4.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 122 strikeouts in 124.1 innings, and for his career sports a 4.23 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
Nothing about that screams untouchable, and there also have been concerns that Thornton’s ultimate future is in the bullpen. Plus, he was eligible for the Rule-5 draft this season, so instead of dedicating a valuable roster spot to someone with limited potential to help in 2019, Houston turned him into what could be a valuable asset for the next four seasons.
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