By Fantasy Geek
Fantasy football is conducive to fits of anxiety, rage and occasional jubilation. Through all those emotions, we often get mired down in stats, flashes in the pan and highlight reels. In short, it’s hard to separate reality from fantasy. And even though we love fantasy football, our stats and points happen in reality. With that said, let’s look a little closer at some situations and see what’s real and what’s fantasy.
Fantasy: Adrian Peterson is a bust for 2016
Reality: No chance. Peterson is a notoriously slow starter. Remember last year, he was disappointing in Week One and then broke out huge in Week Two. Also, AP played almost no time in the preseason. So, there’s rust to be knocked off, which could account for his 1.3 yards after contact, a stat he always dominates in. But, also, in the back of everyone’s mind is Peterson’s age and current offensive situation. Let’s not call him a bust, but let’s for sure monitor this situation. Don’t forget about 2012 when Peterson faced a bad QB situation and a stacked line and still rushed for more than 2,000 yards. He has it in him, and I’m still believing in him.
Fantasy: Todd Gurley, like Peterson, is a bust
Reality: Maybe not a bust, but he’s not going to pay on his early round investment. Gurley is out-of-this-world talented. But the Rams offense is stagnant and awful. And now their defense looks to have taken a step back, which means less running and more passing. Gurley is still someone to start, and who may have a few good games, but he’s not going to pay off for your team. You should’ve taken a WR instead of Gurley. Wait for him to have a good game and trade him (unless it’s a dynasty league).
Fantasy: Tyrell Williams is the best pickup of the week
Reality: Laughably wrong. I saw a desperate Keenan Allen owner bid 65% of their FAAB money to grab Williams. For what? A starter? Your season is over if you’re counting on a guy who has four career catches to save your season, or even be a starter. In Week One, when the ultra-fragile Allen went down (again) with a bad injury, Williams had 2 catches for 71 yards and no TDs. I’m not buying this guy as anything but a bench warmer and a hot pickup for the week. I’ll eat my words if I’m wrong, but he’s not the savior you’re looking for.
Fantasy: Dez Bryant is worthless with Dak Prescott
Reality: Dez is still the man. Dez was drafted as a WR1 and will perform as such. Prescott looked timid, but has a great offensive line, a solid running game and good coaching around him to help him make good reads and look downfield. Plus, Dez is too selfish of a player not to force his way into the playbook and get targets. I would be concerned about his matchup with Josh Norman this week, and don’t give up on Dez just yet, even if his stats are still down after Week Two. He’s too good and too talented.
Fantasy: It’s already time to give up on Thomas Rawls
Reality: Giving up on Rawls will be a monumental mistake. Let me state this for the umpteenth time and put it in bold and all caps: CHRISTINE MICHAEL IS A LOUSY RUNNING BACK. For a guy who’s averaged more than 4 yards per carry, you know how many TDs he has in his three-year career? ZERO. If this guy were so good, with that kind of YPC average, wouldn’t he have won a job somewhere? Rawls is slowly being eased back after a major injury. The starting job is his, and Michael is a guy I want no part of. Buy low on Rawls and please, for my own sanity’s sake, stop with the Christine Michael hype, once and for all.
Fantasy: Devonta Freeman’s 2015 was a fluke
Reality: Freeman will certainly comeback down to earth. He won’t be the top scoring fantasy running back this year. He won’t even be top 10. He could still be a top 20 fantasy RB however. But, he needs to kick it into gear this week against Oakland. Freeman even lost targets and catches to Tevin Coleman, so if he’s not catching passes, then his value will drop even further. If you own Freeman and Coleman, you even have a quandary, but if you didn’t handcuff Coleman, then you should be panic mode.
Fantasy: Carson Wentz is the next coming of Andrew Luck
Reality: Let’s just hold on a minute. I like Wentz. He’s big and came from the right style of play in college (even though it was Division 2). But Wentz is a rookie for a mediocre team. He looked so good in Week One because they played arguably the worst football team in the history of the sport. Lenny Melnick could pass for big numbers against the Cleveland Browns. In non-keeper leagues, if you have Wentz as your backup, now is the time to trade him for a commodity. In dynasty leagues, your investment should pay off – eventually.
Fantasy: Gary Barnidge should find a one-way ticket out of Cleveland
Reality: Who wouldn’t want to get out of Cleveland? Barnidge was a bust in Week One after being a consistent performer all of last year. However, the miserable RG3 was under center and his need to try to throw down field all the time, hurt Barnidge’s value, as did Gary’s two dropped passes. Barnidge will reestablish his connection with Josh McCown and should see a spike in his value. That being said, until I see it, I’m benching Barnidge for better options.
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