Baseball Chatter 02/08

Chris Carter – best-case scenario for Chris Carter is if he plays first base against left-handed pitching. The Yankees also have Greg Bird playing first base and  Matt Holliday as DH.

Carter:

  • has trouble putting the ball in play, AVG/OBP is .218/.314 over 2,645 plate appearances
  • Horrible defensive skills – Minus 19 Defensive Runs Saved and minus 15.5 Ultimate Zone Rating in over 3,400 innings playing first base.

 

Trevor Story injured his thumb July 30, when the Rockies were 52-52, and 4.5 games out of the NL wild-card race. They ended up with a losing record for the sixth straight season after going 23-35 the rest of the way.

Story struck out in 31.3 percent of the time, second most in the National League of players with 400 or more plate appearances. Story

AVG/OBP at Home: .313/.393 with 16 homers

AVG/OBP on the road: .235/.292 with 11 homers

Jacoby Jones has the most upside of the candidates for the Tigers Centerfield job, but the team would prefer to get him some more minor league time at Triple-A Toledo.

Tyler Collins seems better suited as a fourth outfielder and the Comerica Park outfield could present a challenge.

Mikie Mahtook could be the odds-on favorite.

The Tigers need a left-handed power bat to even out their lineup, and Steven Moya would be the perfect fit if he hit in the majors anything close to what he hits in the minors. In 133 major league plate appearances over three seasons, Moya struck out 50 times and only hit five homers.

Moya played the worst defense of his career in a 31-game stint last season, and is now out of minor league options, He faces long odds to make the 25-man roster.

Baseball Prospectus PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) loves the 2017 Astros, who are forecasted to win 93 games in 2017, the most in the American League. PECOTA has the Indians winning the American League Central with 92 wins and the Red Sox taking the American League East with 90 wins.

Mike Napoli’s OPS against the Angels = 1.139. If Napoli’s career OPS against all teams was 1.139, that would make him second all-time in that category behind Babe Ruth (1.163) and ahead of Ted Williams (1.115).

Napoli has homered against the Angels 19 times in 213 at bats, or 8.9 percent of his at-bats against the Angels for whom he played for five of his 11 MLB seasons. Babe Ruth homered on 8.5 percent of his career at bats.

PECOTA sees progression for Byron Buxton, who projects to hit 17 home runs with a .730 OPS in 509 plate appearances next season. 2.9 wins above replacement player — best on the team and indicative of the fact that he could very well be the Twins’ best player as soon as this season. Miguel Sano is next with 31 homers and a 2.6 WARP

Andrew McCutchen has declined defensively over the past three seasons. His DRS is minus-47 over that span, including a MLB-worst minus-28 last season.

Problem is, the Pirates now have three outfielders playing new positions. Starling Marte played nine games in center, and Gregory Polanco played 21 in left last season, McCutchen has never has played in right.

Robinson Cano worked with Jean Segura to change his swing prior to the start of the 2016 season. It’s something that they’ve continued this season on a daily basis. 

There is the obvious possibility of some regression for Segura. Those gaudy numbers would be hard to replicate for any player. And yet, it would still be better than what the Mariners have been getting from the position.

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