Padres Sign Garrett Richards
The Padres inked free agent starting pitcher, Garrett Richards, to a deal that guarantees the former Angels starter approximately $15.5 million over the next two years. However, Padres fans shouldn’t get excited about Richards until the 2020 season as Richards is expected to miss the 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery in July 2018.
The Padres are trying to sell this as a low risk/high reward acquisition, suggesting Richards is a top tier major league pitcher who for $15.5 million will be a relative bargain once healthy. Many in the media suggest this was a great move by general manager, A.J. Preller, as it helps set up their pitching rotation for the 2020 season, when they hope to contend for a NL West pennant. But was it really a good move for the small market Padres?
Sadly, the Richards deal reminds us of the Padres dismal track with this type of signing. Going back to 2007, the Padres signed Mark Prior for $2 million over two years. Prior never threw a pitch for the Padres. In 2013 the team signed Josh Johnson, who had multiple Tommy John surgeries. The Padres paid Johnson $9 million over two years. Johnson also never threw an inning for the Padres. While many will cite the success of the Nathan Eovaldi signing by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2017, it is important to note the Rays paid Eovaldi $4 million over two years, not $15.5 million as the Padres have committed to Richards.
It’s possible Richards regains full health and contributes to the team in the 2020 season. But consider this. Richards has a long history of injuries. When Richards makes his Padres debut in 2020, he will be 32 years old. He hasn’t completed a season since 2015 and has thrown less than 150 innings combined over the past 3 years combined. If he does recover and is ready to pitch in 2020, given his injury history, it is reasonable to assume his innings will be limited. Realistically, the best case scenario for the Padres is that for $15.5 million, they will be fortunate to get 120 innings out of Richards.
I suggest this was a high risk/low reward signing. It seems wishful thinking that an oft-injured player such as Richards suddenly finds good health in his early 30s. Fans should not be surprised if this goes down as yet another terrible signing of an injured pitcher by the Padres. As a small market club, they should have looked elsewhere.
Winter Meetings Needs
The Padres continue to shop for a third baseman. Their current roster is void of a major league ready third baseman. Expect Preller to continue to pursue a long term fix at third base by shopping one of their extra outfielders such as Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Franchy Cordero or Manuel Margot. Alternatively, the team could opt for a short term fix by signing a free agent such as Yangervis Solarte or even Mike Moustakas.
Expect the Padres to also explore a short term fix for the shortstop position. Number one prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. is expected to start the season in triple A and likely will not be called up until the summer. In the meantime time the Padres are likely to sign a veteran free agent such a Freddy Galvis, Jordy Mercer or Alcides Escobar.
The Padres will also look to add a veteran starting pitcher. Don’t be surprised if the Padres compete for the signing Japanese pitcher, Yusei Kikuchi. Rumors involving a deal for Noah Syndergaard seem remote unless the Padres include top prospect Tatis, which seems unlikely. The Padres have also been connected to a trade with Yankees starter Sonny Gray.
If one is looking for a long-shot move, do not be surprised if Preller explores the acquisition of Marlins catcher, J.T. Realmuto. Preller is thought to of long admired Realmuto as he would fit nicely into the middle of the Padres order for they hope to compete in 2020. The Padres have an arsenal of elite prospects that Miami would likely covet and have two major league ready catchers in Austin Hedges and Francisco Mejia that could be dealt.
Fans shouldn’t look for the Padres to go on a spending spree during the winter meetings. If they decide to deal some of their better prospects and are able to trade one of their young outfielders, things could get exciting at Petco Park.
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