MITCH HARTSON
The Washington Nationals approach the Las Vegas winter meetings with a number of goals and needs but the “elephant in the house” has been, and is, Bryce Harper. Most conversations among Nats’ fans start and end with speculation about whether or not Harper will remain with the team or sign a free agent contract with one of several suiters.
There were reports from Bleacher Report and Ken Rosenthal that General Manager Mike Rizzo agreed to a trade of Bryce to the Houston Astros for prospects at the trade deadline but that reportedly the ownership group vetoed this trade at the last minute. There would have been three prospects in the deal but not Kyle Tucker. Rosenthal suggested that the Nationals “owners feared trading him would harm their relationship with the player and reduce their chances of signing him”. In early November, multiple sources reported that Bryce rejected a $300 million deal (USA Today, ESPN).
The offer did not include a player option and speculation suggests that this may have been a key issue with rejection of the contract. Space here does not permit a discussion of the inclusion of “opt-out” provisions for players in long-term contracts and we plan to elaborate on this later but suffice to say the player opt-out has the optics of a “heads I win; tails you lose” deal for ownership and frankly we don’t understand why executives started agreeing to such a policy.
Other speculation exists as to whether Harper could play first base and our immediate take on this is the suggestion reeks of Agent Boros working to improve Harper’s value as a free agent. The bottom line is that much of the planning for 2019 for the Nats is tethered to whether or not Harper returns to the team. Its possible more clarity will appear at the winter meetings but here’s betting the Harper agreement drags on a la J D Martinez for quite a while.
Assuming for this post that Harper moves on, the next question deals with other priorities for the team. Other notable free agents likely departing DC includes: Jeremy Hellickson; Kelvin Herrera; Greg Holland; Mark Reynolds; Matt Wieters; Tim Collins; and Joaquin Benoit. Many are suggesting a top priority be set on extending Anthony Rendon and indeed his WAR was better than Harper but anyone who is well versed in the negotiating process with Scott Boros will quickly discover Mr. Boros is not a big fan of contract extensions notwithstanding the fact that Steven Strasburg did agree to a contract extension.
It’s no secret that the Nats have a significant need in the following areas: starters; catchers; second baseman and bench players. The team has addressed its catching needs by signing Kurt Suzuki to a one year deal with an additional year as a team option. The metrics reflect that Suzuki’s ability to throw out runners is lower than league-average but his hit tool is clearly better than any of the three catchers this past season. One might properly infer that the Nats are out now on negotiations for J.T Realmuto but anything can happen.
History suggests that Kurt Suzuki, a former Nat, is a pretty solid catcher. His age is an issue and he is unlikely to be able to start more than 80-100 games. In the bullpen, the Nats have added Kyle Barraclough, Trevor Rosenthal, and most recently, James Borque (#17 prospect in Nats’ system) who was added to the 40-man roster. Our initial excitement with the signing of Trevor Rosenthal (high risk/high reward) was mitigated when learning that Rosenthal could earn up to $30 million over the next two years. Not all crazy contracts are for multi-year deals $80M and above. This clearly looks like an overpay where the Nats were maybe competing with themselves for Rosenthal’s services.
At second base the current Nats’ options are Wilmer Difo and presumably a healthy Howie Kendrick. Its no secret around DC that neither of these alternatives excite the management team so we expect the team to look at free agent or trade options. On November 23d, Blake Finney (Fansided Sports) reports a rumored link between the Nationals and Josh Harrison, free agent second baseman. The same report indicates that Nats are among many teams having interest in Marwin Gonzalez. The outfield seems to be fairly set even with the departure of Bryce Harper. An outfield of Juan Soto, Victor Robles and Adam Eaton is correctly seen as having tremendous upside. Looking in are Michael A. Taylor and Andrew Stevenson.
The most aggressive pursuit of free agents will likely involve starting pitching and the Nats probably need to add at least two either through free agent signings or trades. All free agent starting pitchers probably are generating some level of interest from the Nats. Speculation suggests that the Nats can afford to sign one tier 1 starter but would need to obtain the second starter at Tier 2 or below.
Outside of Carter Kieboom there doesn’t appear to be a high probability of a major contribution from the Nats’ prospect inventory. Kieboom, arguably the best current prospect is a shortstop so his ascendency would require either a Trea Turner move over to second or Kieboom to make that conversion. Either scenario is unlikely in early 2019 but other teams will continue to ask for Kieboom in trade talks and our view is that he is unlikely to be traded.
A major continuing issue with the Nationals is the on-going dispute between the Nats and the Orioles over revenue sharing. The Associated Press reported on November 16th that arguments by representatives of both teams were completed before a committee of baseball executives. This has been a long-standing dispute over television rights fees and the Nationals have clearly gotten the short end of the stick since their move from Montreal. It’s important to raise this issue in any assessment of the Nats’ prospects going forward because the revenue sharing directly affects the team’s ability to compete.
That’s all folks this time around. Watch for the next update.
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