Is Max Muncy For Real?

 

 

Is Max Muncy for real? If you follow baseball or fantasy sports then you understand why this is a legitimate question. During the 2018 baseball season there was no one more exciting to watch than Muncy. He was also the most surprising player of 2018.

What is even more remarkable is that Muncy accomplished this feat as a part time player. He appeared in 147 games last year but he served as a pinch hitter an astounding 30 times. Why was he only used on a part time basis? Dave Roberts liked to platoon Muncy frequently during the season. Ironically Muncy was quite effective against lefties in 2018. We will never know what could have been if Muncy had been given a bigger role in 2018, but it’s safe to say that Muncy would have hit at least 40 home runs if he had been provided the opportunity.

Muncy’s splits

Vs. Righties:

Regardless of how you look at it, Muncy was an elite power hitter in 2018 despite which side the pitcher hurled from.

So is this for real? This is an important question going forward. His ascension is certainly not typical. Most players who have this type of success in the big leagues are highly touted prospects or have proven themselves for a few years in the minors. Most of them are in their early to mid- twenties Very few break out and dominate at 27 years of age. Muncy’s break out season literally came out of nowhere. While he was a decent prospect in the minors he never hit more than 25 home runs and most of that production was in high A ball (Stockton) in 2013.

Muncy’s calling card as a prospect was his ability to get on base which he did at an impressive clip of 14.2% of his plate appearances. His career minor league line of .276/.382./438 demonstrates the type of ability that Muncy possessed to get on base. That was enough for Muncy to get called up to the Majors with the Oakland A’s in 2015 where Muncy sported a .660 OPS and once again in 2016 when he put up an abysmal .565 OPS. After failing at the big league level for the Athletics in 245 plate appearances, Oakland released Muncy.

After the Dodgers signed Muncy to a minor league contract in 2017, he made some adjustments aided by his father. The results at AAA Oklahoma were solid as Muncy put up a slash line of 309/.414./.491 with 12 home runs in 320 at bats. A hot start at AAA in 2018 led to a call up to the Dodgers and the rest is history.

At first glance, it appears that the adjustments Muncy made in 2017, under the tutelage of his father, were the catalyst which led to his 2018 break out performance. Then again there could be more at play here than just a few adjustments at the plate. Muncy isn’t the first “late bloomer” we’ve seen in the majors over the past 10 years. Let’s compare Muncy to a few other major leaguers who figured it out when they were 27 years old or older to determine the possible range of outcomes for him in the future.

Jack Cust

Maybe the best comparison is Jack Cust, another hitter who came on late to have a productive big league career. Like Muncy, Cust was also an on-base machine, although Cust had more power in the minors and struck out more.

Cust had a breakout season for the Athletics in 2008 Cust took the American League by storm when he hit 26 home runs in 395 at bats with a slash line of .256/.408/.503 at the age of 28 yrs old. Cust went on to have productive seasons from 2008-2009 including a 33 home run campaign before fizzling out and eventually leaving baseball in 2012.

Edwin Encarnacion

Encarnacion, is different than Muncy in that he was a coveted prospect for the Cinncinati reds. He played for them from 2005-2009 and appeared to have a break out in 2008 at the age of 25 when he hit 26 home runs with a line of .250/.340/.466. Unfortunately, from 2008-2012 Encarnacion struggled to produce like many thought he would and he totaled an OPS of less than.790 until his break out in 2012 at 29 years of age. That year Encarnacion hit 42 home runs with a slash line of .280/.384/.557 and came in 11th place in MVP voting. He continues to produce since 2012 and is one of the league’s most consistent and feared power hitters. Even in his age 35 season in 2018 Encarnacion hit 32 home runs with an .810 OPS.

Jose Bautista

“Joey Bats” as they call him was a virtually unknown big leaguer who bounced in and out of the league from 2004-2009. Finally, in 2010 at the age of 29 Bautista broke out in a big way as he hit 54 home runs with a slash line of .260/.378/.617. Bautista continued to crush the ball and hit extremely well from 2010-2015 hitting at least 27 home runs per year and maintaining at least a .856 OPS or higher. Bautista is clearly a declining player now but the 6 years he put together from the time he broke out were elite and impressive.

What does this mean?

What all this data tells us is that sometimes players take longer to mature and to develop than we’d like. In particular, some power hitters don’t realize their potential until they approach their late twenties. For the players listed above, a switch was just turned on for them one day and they finally “got it “and when they did, their performance was spectacular.

So is Muncy for real? I think so. He has a profile that suggests he can continue to play at a high level going forward. Like all of the hitters above, he has good plate discipline, he walks at a high rate, and he hits the ball hard, frequently in the air. This is really the key. Hitters with this profile usually have success in the Major Leagues. Having said that there is likely some regression coming for Muncy. His home run to flyball rate was a ridiculous 39.3% last season and that is not sustainable. For some perspective, Khris Davis had a 35% home run to fly ball rate last year. So Muncy should come down to earth some in 2019.

Muncy’s 2019 Projection

Projecting Muncy’s 2019 season is complicated. As long as Dave Roberts chooses to platoon Muncy against left handers, Muncy has a capped ceiling of around 450 at bats. With that amount of playing time Muncy should have a slash line of .268/390/.530 with 27 home runs. While he is bound to have some home run regression, his batting average should actually regress positively. In 2018his BAbip was .299 which is a tad low , so he could easily hit closer to .270 in 2019. Because Muncy’s positional versatility (1b,2b,3b,OF) he should have a solid floor of around 390 at bats. The only concern about Muncy is how long he will be able to play at a high level. He could fizzle out after a few years like Jack Cust or play at a high level into his mid thirties like Encarnacion. How that pans out is a wait and see situation. In the mean time Max Muncy is for real!

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=muncyma01&year=2018&t=b

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-max-muncy-20180705-story.html

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/custja01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bautijo02.shtml

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/stats?season=2018&category=BATTING+RATIOS&group=1&sort=10&time=0&pos=0&qual=0&sortOrder=0&splitType=0&page=3&statID=0

https://www.mlb.com/news/how-max-muncy-has-become-a-slugger-for-dodgers/c-281819544