Tale of a Tanaka trade

By Andrea L.

The Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka to a seven year,  $155 million contract from 2014 through 2020. They also paid another $20 million posting fee to his former-Japanese league club for the transfer of ownership.

At the time, it was the fifth highest contract ever given to a pitcher and the largest ever given to a player from Japan.

Tanaka makes $22 million a year for the first six years and $23 million in the seventh and final year. The contract allows him to opt out of the final three years of his deal after 2017.

In 2014, his rookie major league season, Tanaka was one of nine pitchers to start more than 10 games for the Yankees, and has clearly been the most consistent Yankees starting pitcher since he arrived. It was 2016 however, that he fully established himself as the ace of the Yankees rotation with a 3.09 ERA over 199 innings pitched.

Why am I telling you all about Tanaka’s contract?

A few weeks back I came across an article by Joel Sherman about how if Tanaka were to have a great season in 2017, the Yankees would be in quite a bind.

“Tanaka can opt out of his seven-year, $155 million contract after next season, and short of significant injury, the righty almost certainly will.”

Sherman goes on to say,

“So even though Tanaka was diagnosed in July 2014 with a partially torn UCL and has shown he is far more effective working on more than the standard four days’ rest, he would be in line to top three years at $67 million. He is only 28. He just came off his best MLB season, going 14-4 with a 3.07 ERA and — most important — making 31 starts.”

“Another season like that would help the 2017 Yankees, but probably would allow Tanaka to command a five-year contract after opting out — possibly more.”

I found the idea that Tanaka would almost certainly opt out after 2017 quite presumptuous, and baseless, frankly. The idea that Tanaka would command a five year contract, maybe more, is also questionable so I debated the theory with Lenny for a bit and then went about my life.

Since then, I have seen the theory pop up quite a few times, all of which offer the same solution Sherman gave, which is that the Yankees must trade Tanaka before he has the opportunity to opt out of his contract or get hurt, both bad outcomes for the Yankees.

Lets take a look

The Partially Torn UCL

In 2018, Tanaka will no longer be in his 20’s, and every season we see the chances of a club signing a pitcher to a long term contract after the age of 30 getting smaller and smaller. A five year contract is stretching it to the breaking point in my opinion, especially with the partially torn UCL that was never surgically fixed. He also underwent elbow surgery to remove a bone spur in October 2015.

This is not to say that Tanaka is doomed, and he spent zero days injured last season. It is only to make note of what any club considering a five year contract for a pitcher would consider.

However, in the first two seasons as a Yankee, Tanaka made a combined total of 44 starts. In 2014, Tanaka missed 15 days with a right forearm strain, and in 2015 he missed 74 days with right elbow inflammation.

“The UCL does not completely heal on its own ever. Without surgery, the area is only stabilized by two methods. First, the elbow can be strengthened up to the point where the muscles take up the slack for the lack of ligament stability. The other method is that scar tissue is built up and the muscles are also strengthened. Regardless neither of these actually heal the tissue of the ligament, they merely control the symptom of instability.”

The Contract

“He is due three years at $67 million after 2017. Consider that Rich Hill — that would be: oft-injured, 37-in-March, hasn’t qualified for the ERA title since 2007 Rich Hill — signed a three-year, $48 million free-agent pact this offseason to stay a Dodger (albeit in a terrible year for free-agent starters, which will not be the case next offseason).”Joel Sherman

A comparison to Rich Hill is made in Sherman’s article as well as on a segment of MLB Now which is supposed to justify why Tanaka could command a five year deal or more.  If an injury-prone old guy can get this, then Tanaka would at least get this…la la la..

In 2017, Tanaka’s base salary of $22 million ranks 16th highest in all of baseball, and eighth highest among starting pitchers. That is more than:

(In 2018, when he gets the option to opt out, his base salary of $22 million will rank ninth among starting pitchers and 20th in all of baseball.)

There are only seven active starting pitchers age 30 or older who signed a contract for five or more seasons that get paid more than Tanaka.

The No Trade Clause

Back in July, a writer at ESPN published Three Reasons Why Trading Masahiro Tanaka is a No-Brainer if the Yankees are Selling

The writer claims that the Yankees need to rebuild because at the time there was very little hope of contending in 2017 and beyond. It was prior to the recent influx of youngsters signed over the past few months.

The idea that the Yankees should or could trade Tanaka when they can is based on the assumption that they even have the right to trade him.

“Tanaka’s contract is a ticking time bomb with no upside for the Yankees. Get rid of it now…(Tanaka) is the best trade chip they’ve had since Robinson Cano‘s pre-free agency trade deadline. He is probably the best trade chip they will have for at least two seasons.”

They don’t have the right to trade him because he has a full no trade clause in his contract

Life in New York City

When he first signed with the Yankees, Tanaka had to adapt quickly to a brand new culture, My point here is that opting out of his contract would mean settling in all over again and this is much more difficult for a guy who still uses a translator on a regular basis.

Tanaka is married to Mai Satoda, who has a background as a singer in a girl band and a was also a television personality. They currently reside right in the heart of New York City, where they fit in perfectly. Check it out:

“I’ve really gotten used to everything here, so I guess it’s a little bit more easier for me,” Masahiro Tanaka

The Tanakas had their first son last year and Mai keeps up with her friends and family back home by posting updates about her ‘New York Life’ on her blog. She goes to most Yankee games when he is pitching and can be seen in Manhattan walking in heels and carrying a poodle and a pet carrier. My point is that she loves it in New York, and Tanaka loves it in New York.

It is hard to believe they would uproot from their home and their guaranteed income to wait and hope some other team makes him a better offer. Silly really.

The following articles are just a few to promote the Tale of a Tanaka trade:

Should The Yankees Trade Masahiro Tanaka? – FanRag Sports

While it’s nice to have an ace like Tanaka, they could be better off with the prospects he would return as New York hopes to make a World Series run by 2019.

Masahiro Tanaka‘s looming opt-out shades New York Yankees’ plans – ESPN

“If Tanaka repeats his 14-4, 3.07 ERA season, he most assuredly will opt out or threaten to opt out, leveraging a clause in Year 4 of his seven-year, $155 million contract. If Tanaka struggles in 2017 or, worse, is severely injured, then he likely would stay on to finish out the final three seasons of his deal.”

After Aroldis Chapman trade, what Yankees should do next | SI.com

Yankees: What Would Ace Masahiro Tanaka Fetch in a Trade This …

MLB Rumors: Yankees to trade Masahiro Tanaka this winter

Could New York Yankees make Masahiro Tanaka available for a trade

MLB Rumors: NY Yankees To Trade Masahiro Tanaka To Make Way

Masahiro Tanaka: The Unspoken Trade Candidate – River Avenue Blues

Will The Yankees Trade Tanaka If They Fail To Compete In 2017

NY Yankees Trading Masahiro Tanaka Not Completely Crazy

The New York Yankees are in a sticky situation with Masahiro Tanaka

 

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