FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS by David Leisure 08-20

Each and every year when fantasy football season comes around, the sleeper pick projections are made and we all look to make that hero pick that we think will make our teams the best.  I would like to add some clarity to the term Sleeper Pick so that when we have our discussions about them, a greater appreciation of them can be realized.  

There are 3 simple rules for defining sleepers

     Rule 1: Rookies are prospects, never sleepers.

     Rule 2: Any player selected in the top 84 (rounds 1 through 7 in 12 team leagues) can never be considered a sleeper

After pick 84, team owners have likely filled their starters at each of their key positions (2 RB, 3 WR).  These later round selections will probably be on your bench to start the season, but if they pan out, they could become key contributors to your championship dreams.

     Rule 3: Any player drafted in the top 50 the previous season cannot be deemed a sleeper. They can be deemed as Rebound Players instead.

If we did not take into account last year’s rankings when determining sleepers, Jimmy Graham would be considered a sleeper as he has fallen from a top 30 draft pick to his current ADP of 111. He is definitely someone to keep an eye on for a rebound, but everyone knows his potential.

Here is a list of players who I believe should be considered sleepers this year in no particular order that you should keep in mind:

Spencer Ware, Running Back, Kansas City

ADP (Average Draft Position): 232.85

Ware came onto the scene at the end of 2015 as he and Charcandrick West filled in for Jamaal Charles after his season ending injury. West came on strong at the outset, but Ware proved his worth later in the year, scoring six touchdowns in his limited role.

Ware averaged 5.6 yards per carry and caught all 6 passes he was targeted for last year. Charles is back from injury and West remains ahead of Ware on the Chiefs depth chart, but that is good news for Fantasy owners because finding such a talent after round 11 is a rarity,  and in some drafts  he may be available as late as round 14 or 15.  He is a great flier at the running back position which has proven to be riddled with injuries, especially when it comes to the Chiefs.

Kamar Aiken, Wide Receiver, Baltimore

ADP: 148.90

Aiken burst onto the scene last year and provided solid production in the middle of last season and proved to be a consistent enough a player to be in fantasy lineups the rest of the season. From Week 8 on, Aiken caught at least 5 balls a game and was targeted 10 or more times in 5 of those 9 games.  His detractors will point out that in those 9 games that he only score 3 touchdown and with Breshad Perriman back healthy, Aiken’s role may be diminished.  Let them think that because the reality is that the familiarity Aiken has achieved with Joe Flacco may earn him some extra looks as the trust between a QB and a WR cannot be fully measured or appreciated.

Chris Hogan, Wide Receiver, New England

ADP: 155.85

Hogan gained fame through Hard Knocks with the Miami Dolphins a couple of years ago as he was given the nickname Seven Eleven. He was open all day.  The problem for Hogan has been his role in sputtering offenses in both his brief time with Miami and most recently in Buffalo. He has moved to New England where receivers like Julian Edelman and Wes Welker before him have become prominent forces in PPR leagues. Yes, Tom Brady is suspended for 4 games and that may limit his production, look for Hogan to have a career year for himself and maybe set himself up for a more prominent role in the offense come fantasy playoff time.  Hogan’s past numbers with the Bills in 2015 were unimpressive, but so were the Bills in general. Being cast in the Patriots offensive system boosts practically anyone in the wide receiver role.  Hogan may be the next success story.

Colin Kaepernick, Quarterback, San Francisco

ADP: 230.80

Kaepernick may be my most controversial pick as a sleeper this year, especially since he is currently the backup QB for a miserable 49ers team.  He was benched last year and never regained his starting role.

He is on this list for me is because Chip Kelly is the new Head Coach/Offensive Coordinator in San Francisco.  The strength of any Chip Kelly offense is the running game. For all the gimmicks of the offense, the running game is what gets rewarded by it.

Kaepernick’s speed was greatly utilized in the read option attack a few years back in the 49ers Superbowl run, so he definitely has the ability to be be a mobile QB and run producer in the offense.

You will be able to take Kaepernick in the final round of your draft this year or he may go undrafted entirely. In that case, be sure to keep an eye out for him during free agent bidding. Either way, he is someone that could prove valuable if you are an owner who waits on QBs and gets a fringe starter as your #1 QB and may need an upgrade later on.

Charles Clay, Tight End, Buffalo

ADP: 170.23   

A tight end on the list of sleepers may seem strange, but when you consider that Clay is not being ranked in the top 15 of his position, he demands a mention. The Buffalo offense has LeSean McCoy at Running Back and Sammy Watkins at Wide Receiver and both will be the focal points of the defensive coverage that the Bills will be facing.

Tyrod Taylor is now entrenched as the starting QB and there is no competition for the QB role. A quarterback’s best friend is his Tight End, and Clay is more than capable of producing. In 2015, Clay was in his first season with the Buffalo Bills, averaging 10.4 yards a catch, and had 51 catches over 13 games before he missed the final three games last season.  Tight ends are notorious for not being productive in their first season with a team, but come the second year, they normally become a force to be reckoned with.  

Rishard Matthews, Wide Receiver, Tennessee

ADP: 153.85

Matthews escaped Ryan Tannehill and the debacle of last year’s Dolphins. He has not gone to a much more prominent offense, but he should benefit from the change of scenery.  He will now have Marcus Mariotta as his QB who is entering his second year in the league and building upon his rookie year success.  Matthews missed the last 5 games of the season last year with the Dolphins, but when he averaged 15.4 yards per reception as he caught 43 passes in 2015.  The Tennessee offense now has Demarco Murray as its RB with Derrick Henry as his partner in the backfield, so there should be opportunities for Mariotta to get the ball to Matthews in passing plays be it on swing passes or plays down the field.  The more swing passes come Matthews’ way, the better his value in points per receptions league becomes.

As the years go by, we will all form our own strategies on how we form our fantasy football teams.  My theory on sleepers each year is that I want to draft between 2 and 4 players that I deem as sleepers in my drafts and if just one of them performs at a superstar level, the sky is the limit for my overall team.

If you have any sleepers you feel should be considered, please reply to the article with your reasoning for them and we may discuss among our community.

All ADP’s cited were provided via NBC Sports which provides an updated list of ADPs tallied from the National Fantasy Football Championships.  Those cited in this article are based upon the last reported numbers on 8/20/16.