It’s been 12 years now since former Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein and cohort Jed Hoyer flew to Arizona for Thanksgiving dinner with the Schilling family. They would successfully convince then-Diamondbacks pitcher Curt Schilling to waive his no-trade clause. Of course, that decision brought the right-hander to Boston, and you know the rest.
That reminder is not meant to suggest that Dave Dombrowski and Mike Hazen have to barge in on David Price’s or Zack Greinke’s holiday feasts this week. But that moment can still serve as an indicating benchmark of the level of aggression that Boston’s new president of baseball operations and newer general manager may need to show this offseason.
Even while it’s arguable that they should, instead, show restraint.
According to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, the Red Sox are “all-in” on Price, perhaps the premier starting pitcher on the free-agent market, while Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal noted that he believed that Dombrowski would be willing to be the high-bidder on Price “and/or” Greinke, who finished last season 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
It was only a year ago that Red Sox owner John Henry bristled at the thought of giving Jon Lester a long-term deal after the lefty hurtled past his 30th birthday, an age that seemed to be a point of no return according to the franchise’s philosophy at the time. The Red Sox were ultimately willing to make a $135-million offer to retain Lester, but eventually found themselves outbid by the Chicago Cubs by some $20 million.
Enter Rick Porcello, who was 25 at the time of last December’s deal with the Detroit Tigers. Before the righty had even thrown a pitch in a Red Sox uniform, the team awarded him with a four-year, $82.5-million extension for little other reason than to prove a point.
Porcello, who will be only 30 when his contract is up in 2019, went 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA in 2015, enduring a career-worst seven-game losing streak along the way.
So, maybe it should be of little surprise that Henry and the Red Sox have seemingly abandoned a line of thinking that has left them mired in the depths of a third last-place finish in four years. Price turned 30 years old last August in the midst of the Blue Jays’ pursuit of the American League East title. Greinke, who turned 32 last month, has thrown 653 more career innings than Price, and is on the market because he opted out of the $71 million and three years remaining on his contract with the Dodgers.
OK, fine, allow yourself to daydream of a rotation with both for a moment.
1. Price.
2. Greinke.
3. Eduardo Rodriguez.
4. Porcello.
5. Wade Miley/Henry Owens/Joe Kelly/The Ghost of Clay Buchholz.
Drool.
But such a starting five would require something in the range of a $350-million commitment from the Red Sox. Price figures to break the $200-million ceiling, while Greinke could receive somewhere in the neighborhood of six years and $150 million, double the years and cash he was set to receive in Los Angeles.
Based on the club’s recent track records with big-name free agents (Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford, etc.), that’s a frightening proposition despite the possible return. Most fans are skittish on one or the other, pointing to last year’s Panda-Ramirez failure as the latest example that the team shouldn’t dive too deeply into big-boy free agency.
Need more reason for hesitancy? OK. As AJ Cassavell points out at Sports on Earth , “only three free-agent pitchers older than 30 have been handed a contract worth nine figures —(CC) Sabathia (2012), Cliff Lee (2011) and Kevin Brown (1999).”
Shudder.
Greinke placed second to Chicago Cubs starter Jake Arrieta in 2015 National League Cy Young voting, but there’s some credence to the notion that he has peaked and could be headed for a handful of average, high-priced seasons in the American League. Price, 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA between the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays last season, finished second in the American League to Houston Astro Dallas Keuchel, and likely will have teams bidding against each other for his services. His price tag could be more than $200 million by the time things are finished.
All of that, for a guy who is 2-7 with a 5.12 ERA in the postseason.
Still, either guy is worth some level of excitement, even if it would have to be tempered by the understanding that a high level of performance wouldn’t be realistic for the life of any blockbuster deal. But as their rotation stands now, the Red Sox, who improved their bullpen with the addition of closer Craig Kimbrel two weeks ago, would send out either Rodriguez or Porcello to be their Opening Day starter (assuming Buchholz is mercifully dealt elsewhere). That won’t happen.
Then there’s the Jose Fernandez situation to monitor in Miami, where the Marlins may be considering trading the former NL Rookie of the Year this offseason due to perceived attitude problems. While some have disputed the existence of any feud between pitcher and team, the 23-year-old’s reported availability will remain a story line throughout the offseason regardless.
Fernandez was 6-1 with 2.92 ERA with the Marlins last season in 11 starts, less than a year removed from Tommy John surgery. He went 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA in 2013, his only full season (28 starts) at the big league level. He’s also under team control through the 2018 season, when he’ll only be 26 years old.
Dombrowski has already said that the more likely avenue of acquiring a starting pitcher is through free agency rather than trade, but you have to stop and wonder when it comes to Fernandez. He would cost a package of perhaps Blake Swihart, Rodriguez, and anyone else not named Xander Bogaerts or Mookie Betts. After such a sacrifice, the team could have a young stud nearly a decade Greinke’s junior anchoring the rotation.
But how much would you be losing in talent and coaching already invested in guys like Swihart and Rodriguez?
It’s a tempting notion, but ultimately not worth the price of admission that other teams may be willing to pay to sit at the discussions. For the Red Sox, Price “and/or” Greinke likely remain as the main attractions of the hot stove season.
Jordan Zimmerman? Johnny Cueto? I suppose it depends at what point desperation sets in.
The Red Sox are ready to spend again in free agency.
Nobody really knows if they should be excited about that.
By Eric Wilbur